While stock prices have risen, the period after Donald Trump’s election victory has been the worst for u.s. treasuries since 2001, writes On Tuesday. The ten-year statsrenten has risen from around 1,80 per cent before the election 8. november to over 2,30 per cent.
According to Finansavisen think strategist Albert Edwards of Société Générale, famous for his negative view on the world economy, that a further increase in the langrenten to about 3,25 percent is plausible. For years he has recommended the maximum allocation to bonds and minimal allokerering to the shares (corresponding to 50 per cent in bonds and 30 percent in stocks and 20 percent in cash, at SocGen).
“In the course of the next six months, I expect bond markets will more than make up for his earlier optimistic view on interest rates. Yieldoppgangen have been a momentum-trade, and investors are now looking for a tale that can support the direction the journey goes to,” writes Edwards in a note, according to Finansavisen.
“Any further sell-off in us treasuries will be a short interlude before the next recession leads us to where that a panikkrammet the Fed introduces helikopterpenger, negative key rate, and interest rates on ten-year u.s. Treasuries converge with Japan and Germany at around minus 1 per cent,” turns the Edwards firm
the Increase in langrentene began in the summer. It was partly a reaction to that they are right in the aftermath of the brexitavstemningen in the Uk was driven unusually far down, and partly a reaction to the prospect of a more expansive fiscal policy in several countries.
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