Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Stad Ship Tunnel and NTP 2018-2029 – Skipsrevyen

Stad Ship Tunnel is located inside the foundational for the National Transport Plan 2018-2029, which agencies NPRA, Jernbaneverket, Avinor and NCA presented yesterday. The tunnel is located in the category “high frame,” which is project academic shutdowns believes should be implemented if spending increases by 30 percent from current levels. Read here what writer in Skipsrevyen and maritime social commentator Ottar J. Aare and recently published on skipsrevyen.no.

The reason for ship tunnel “location” is the external quality assurance of concept study (KS1) which was prepared Holte Consulting and Pöyry for Fisheries and coastal Affairs and the Ministry of Finance in 2012, which concluded that Stad ship tunnel had a negative socio-economic benefit of 960 million.

in the main conclusion to KS1 report is written following: “(…) net benefit of Stad ship tunnel is larger than that shown by KVU ‘one. Calculated net benefit on the present basis is -910 million. Kr. for large tunnel (…). These values ​​must be considered together with the non-monetised effects and they pointed out uncertainties (…). If the project to be implemented, they must be new effects we have not appreciated is considered to have a total value greater than about 55 million. Kr. per year for large tunnel (….). “

Here is the conclusion that the economic profitability of the project depends on the size of the still non-monetised impacts. KS1 points out that it has omitted to quantify some important new effects of the tunnel, and that the economic profitability of the project depends on the size of the still non-monetised new effects. This involves, among other things important effects such as the value of the transferred traffic from road to sea, less costs and reduced losses for fisheries and aquaculture, security for seafarers, increased tourism and industry effects as a result of better communication.

KS1 pointed out that these effects have to be considered higher than 55 million annually for the project to be economically profitable.

Since KS1 are so incomplete and has obvious shortcomings, so get SINTEF Enterprise commissioned to make a socio-economic analysis in spring 2012, and then looks more closely at the major economic benefits (non-monetised new effects) of Stad ship tunnel, which is noted but not quantified in KS1:

* Number of vessels passages per year and reduced waiting times (annually added value: 10-15 million).

* More freight from road to sea, lower fuel costs (10.11 million).

* reduced traffic with trucks on land, reduction of heavy goods vehicle accidents (10-17 million).

* Societal cost of loss, type MS Midnatsol 2003 (ca. 9 million).

* Increased tourism (not valued)

* Increased yachting tourism (2.7 to 4.4 million).

* Positive effects fishing industry, quality deterioration and loss of value in bad weather (30-40 million).

* Lost revenue in aquaculture (Marine Harvest alone about 2 million).

total ca. 75-100000000 annually.

The paper concludes that these non-monetised impacts have an annual positive benefit of 75-100 million. Crowns, which is far more than that KS1 concludes with the threshold for positive economic profitability (55 million annually).

SINTEF Enterprise thus concludes that there is “highly probable that Stad ship tunnel will have a positive socio-economic net benefits and that the minimum in the range 0.5-1 billion “ .

the project group for Stad ship tunnel was handed SINTEF report to the then fisheries minister Lisbeth Berg -Hansen and Johnsen on 13 June 2012, and is convinced that it was a crucial input into the new National Transport Plan in 2014, where Stad ship tunnel entered the last six-year period of 1 billion (as of 2018).

However, several positive beneficial effects is still not priced, like eg. labor and employment, tourism, security and comfort.

In the academic community is agreed that calculation of the overall economic benefit is an exercise in uncertainty especially due to the so-called non-monetised impacts. Regarding project Stad Ship Tunnel so it several times made calculations and estimates of these, and the conclusion is clear: It seems highly probable that the Stad Ship Tunnel will have a positive economic net benefit.

NCA confirms that it is considering to make new assessments of the socio-economic benefits of the tunnel. NCA works with ships tunnel and it was an important milestone for the project when the Ministry of Transport sent booking pilot project, zoning and environmental impact assessment (EIA) to the NCA on 18 February 2015.

There were initial meeting for zoning between NCA, Asplan Viak and Selje municipality, 26 January 2016. Planframlegget will be ready for consideration by the planning committee (executive committee) in January 2017. the work on the pilot project and zoning runs parallel. NCA has recently signed a contract with Norconsult and Dr. tech. Olav Olsen AS for the development of technical project for Stad Ship Tunnel. Work began in February and will be completed in October 2016. The pilot project will be completed in winter 2017, and shall thereafter through external quality assurance phase 2 (KS2). KS2 usually takes about 0.5-1 years. When KS2 exists, it will submit a beslutningssak to Parliament.

Now start the political process towards the rollover of the National Transport spring 2017. All the political parties in Parliament have said that they will build Stad Ship Tunnel, and we expect that they will keep their promises by rolling National Transport in 2017.

as for projects over 750 million. NOK as follows also Stad ship tunnel KS regime regarding evaluation and quality assurance of this.

By Randi Paulsen Humborstad, Project Manager for Stad ship tunnel, Email: randi@nordfjordvekst.no, Tel: 977 57 394

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