UBS believes that the exchange rate of the dollar has passed the top, and probably will be weakened in the year, as a result of president Donald Trump’s political course.
It writes Bloomberg News Wednesday, indicating that the UBS as a result of this, among other things, waiting the price rise of base and precious metals.
Global Economics provides in a note on Tuesday afternoon expressed a completely different opinion, and writes that dollars within the a long time will resume its large price gains, as the us central bank “the Federal Reserve will tighten more in monetary policy than most of the waiting”.
“The more debt Donald Trump laws through strengthened infrastructure and lower taxes and tax cuts, in themselves lead to a double underskuddssituasjon in the united STATES, which surely is a negative for the currency,” said Wayne Gordon, director of commodities and currency at UBS, in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
Negative view on the dollar
Trump has begun to implement its policy in the world’s largest economy, after that he repeatedly in the course of the election campaign promised that he will rebuild America’s infrastructure and implement tax cuts.
UBS argues that the prospects for the dollar also created by the us central bank the Federal Reserve, which has signaled that it plans additional rate increases in the year, as inflation is approaching the target and the country is approaching full employment.
“AT UBS, we have a negative view on the dollar. We believe that the dollar value has passed the peak, and that it rolls over here. This view we have because we see real interest rates moving deeper into negative territory”, says Gordon in the TELEVISION interview in Singapore on the night of Wednesday.
Dollarindeksen down 1.7 per cent
Bloombergs dollarindeks has fallen 1.7 per cent in 2017, after the 3. January closed at its highest level since at least 2005. At the same time step LMEX index for the main six basismetallene Tuesday to its highest level since may 2015. The background for the rise of prospects of increased demand and possible disruptions in supply.
The american congressional budsjettkontor said Tuesday that the U.s. budget deficit in 2017 will be at the same level with the current year’s deficit. The forecast is located on 559 billion dollars, equivalent to 2.9 percent of gross domestic product, compared with a loss of 587 billion us dollars in 2016.
Adjusted for an increase in the out in 2016, as a result of a restructuring of the payouts, the figures, the two years will be quite similar, according to budsjettkontoret.
Trump has said that his plans for tax cuts and increased spending will not increase the budget deficit, and that they instead will give a growth to levels that have not been seen since before the financial crisis, and creating employment.
“Not particularly overvalued”
When the minister of finance Steven Mnuchin have talked down concern about a possible budgetary pressures, and has said that faster growth will help to gjeldsreduksjon, because the united STATES will be better positioned to pay off it, write UBS, according to Bloomberg News.
Global Economics declare themselves disagree with the Mnuchin, who said that the u.s. currency is “very, very strong”.
“the United states budsjettbalanse does not suggest that the dollar is excessively strong. In October estimated The international exchange-traded (IMF) that the budget deficit will stay below 3 percent of GDP until 2021,” writes analysetjenesten in a note.
In the note, the deficit was at about the same level in the mid-1980s, when the dollar reached a top level.
“Trump will of course be able to work for a weaker dollar, even though it is not particularly overvalued. (As in many areas of politics, his goals remain unclear). But we doubt that he will have much success. On the contrary, predicts that the dollar will resume its rise within the a long time, as the Fed tightens more than most waiting”, called it in the note of Global Economics.
the Ifo-index on the record levels
Nordea Markets said in its morgenrapport that today’s most important key performance indicators is the German Ifo-index.
“the Ifo index is up at record levels, and we expect a further marginal increase in the underindeksen for the industry. It drags probably the overall index up to 111,3 in January, up from 111 in December. We have the right, indicating that German GDP growth of 2 per cent – higher growth than our projections for 2017 as a whole at 1.4 per cent”, called it in morgenrapporten.
the Crown is on Wednesday morning weakened by about three quarters of a cent against the euro, to 8,9643, compared with the level it was at when the Oslo stock Exchange closed on Tuesday. Against the u.s. dollar is the crown in the same time frame weakened by around three cents, to 8,3596.
the Euro weakened to 1,0725 dollars, compared with the exchange rate on the 1,0756 dollars late on Tuesday night.
Norwegian statsobligasjonsrenter with 10 years maturity ended on Tuesday at the 1.60 per cent, compared to 1,58 percent the previous trading day. In the same time period step 10-årsrenten in Germany to 0,40 per cent from 0,36 per cent.
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