– The growing use of Russian and NATO-led military maneuvers are worrying. They help to maintain the tense situation in Europe, says Lukasz bullet will, lead researcher in the European Leadership Network.
The think tank publishes a note in which they detail goes through two recent and major military exercises – a NATO exercise and a Russian exercise.
According to analysts, it is now quite obvious that both NATO and Russia use their routine to prepare for the opponent’s most likely attack plans.
– Before Ukraine crisis was NATO careful to conduct their routine for many hypothetical scenarios and in a way that would not offend the Russians. Today this is completely different.
Although advocates on both sides had to argue that they practice their hypothetical opponents, says training has nature and size a different story, according to analysts.
– can only simulate war with NATO
The think tank writes that NATO and Russia have concentrated on what they see as their most vulnerable areas. For NATO, this means the defense of the Baltic States and Poland. In the exercise “Allied Shield” that was completed in June 2015, attended by 15,000 people. The exercise was taking place in the Baltic Sea, the Baltic countries, Poland and Sweden.
“The activity would obviously simulate the kind of operations NATO forces would be involved in the event of a military crisis or confrontation with Russia one or elsewhere in the Baltics, “writes the think tank.
Russia for its part has focused on the northern areas as well as constricted Kaliningrad and the Crimean peninsula. In a giant exercise in March attended 80,000 people. The exercise began in northern areas, but included gradually throughout Russia from west to east.
“The scope of this exercise and its geographic reach means that it could only simulate a war with the US-led NATO,” says the note.
Two reasons why exercise can be dangerous
Analysts see a negative spiral with more and larger exercises on both sides. Bullet will point out two reasons why it can be dangerous.
1) Exercises creates great uncertainty and exacerbating the deadlock.
– Many land along the border with Russia remembers what happened in the Caucasus in 2008 and in the Crimea in 2014. Russia’s “exercises” in the area was in fact a cover for a military operation. And when NATO holds exercises on the Russian border, the Russians use it as a pretext to respond with new exercises and more military spending.
2) accidents and collisions can create a crisis situation.
– When Russia exercises, follows NATO careful – and vice versa. The last 18 months we have had several examples of Russian planes very close to NATO airspace.
bullet will say that accidents can occur because airspace becomes more difficult to monitor.
– What happens if one of pilots make a mistake? What happens if a Russian fighter jet crashes into a patrol of NATO? It will lead to a significant escalation of the conflict, said bullet will.
But, no more NATO exercises also contribute to stability by showing the Russians that it is pointless to consider a war against a NATO -land?
– I see this argument, and it should be said that NATO began to expand its operations in the east until after Russia’s actions in Ukraine. So we recommend definitely not for NATO alone cuts out these exercises. It is also not realistic. But we are concerned about the degree of unpredictability in the current security situation in Europe and the exercises can be interpreted as step one in an aggression.
Proposals that could dampen the excitement
Analysts come with some proposals they believe could dampen voltage level.
Among other things, NATO and Russia become better at sharing their plans for exercises with each other.
– NATO Secretary General submitted recently a list of Russia with the main exercises for the rest of 2015. This is an important step in the right direction. Russians should do the same. It can increase predictability and mitigate mistrust, says bullet will.
They also encourage politicians on both sides of continuously assess the benefits of more and bigger exercises in the border areas against the costs.
NATO spokeswoman Carmen Romero yesterday Wednesday morning out on Twitter and denies that NATO exercises makes it more likely the war.
– Today’s report from the European Leadership Network puts mistaken an equal sign between exercises organized NATO and Russia. The fact is that Russia has announced over 4000 exercises this year, which is ten times more than what NATO and those already planned in the same period, she says in a press release.
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